Analysing livestock network data for infectious diseases control:an argument for routine data collection in emerging economies

Livestock movements are an important mechanism of infectious disease transmission. Where these are well recorded, network analysis tools have been used to successfully identify system properties, highlight vulnerabilities to transmission, and inform targeted surveillance and control. Here we highlight the main uses of network properties in understanding livestock disease epidemiology and discuss statistical approaches to infer network characteristics from biased or fragmented datasets. We use a ‘hurdle model’ approach that predicts (i) the probability of movement and (ii) the number of livestock moved to generate synthetic ‘complete’ networks of movements between administrative wards, exploiting routinely collected government movement permit data from northern Tanzania. We demonstrate that this model captures a significant amount of the observed variation. Combining the cattle movement network with a spatial between-ward contact layer, we create a multiplex, over which we simulated the spread of ‘fast’ (R0 = 3) and ‘slow’ (R0 = 1.5) pathogens, and assess the effects of random versus targeted disease control interventions (vaccination and movement ban). The targeted interventions substantially outperform those randomly implemented for both fast and slow pathogens. Our findings provide motivation to encourage routine collection and centralization of movement data to construct representative networks. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’

Modeling the effectiveness of targeting Rift Valley fever virus vaccination using imperfect network information

Livestock movements contribute to the spread of several infectious diseases. Data on livestock movements can therefore be harnessed to guide policy on targeted interventions for controlling infectious livestock diseases, including Rift Valley fever (RVF)—a vaccine-preventable arboviral fever. Detailed livestock movement data are known to be useful for targeting control efforts including vaccination. These data are available in many countries, however, such data are generally lacking in others, including many in East Africa, where multiple RVF outbreaks have been reported in recent years. Available movement data are imperfect, and the impact of this uncertainty in the utility of movement data on informing targeting of vaccination is not fully understood. Here, we used a network simulation model to describe the spread of RVF within and between 398 wards in northern Tanzania connected by cattle movements, on which we evaluated the impact of targeting vaccination using imperfect movement data. We show that pre-emptive vaccination guided by only market movement permit data could prevent large outbreaks. Targeted control (either by the risk of RVF introduction or onward transmission) at any level of imperfect movement information is preferred over random vaccination, and any improvement in information reliability is advantageous to their effectiveness. Our modeling approach demonstrates how targeted interventions can be effectively used to inform animal and public health policies for disease control planning. This is particularly valuable in settings where detailed data on livestock movements are either unavailable or imperfect due to resource limitations in data collection, as well as challenges associated with poor compliance

Peste des Petits Ruminants

Heartwater (or cowdriosis) is a tick-borne disease caused by Ehrlichia ruminantium, an obligatory intracellular bacterium of the order Rickettsiales, transmitted by several ticks of the genus Amblyomma. The organism is genetically highly variable which prevented until now the development of efficient vaccines. The disease is enzootic in sub-Sahelian Africa and in some Caribbean islands. It affects domestic and wild ruminants, the susceptibility to cowdriosis varying greatly between breeds and species: African wildlife shows mainly asymptomatic infections; local cattle breeds are generally protected due to enzootic stability; and introduced cattle breeds and small ruminants, even in enzootic regions, are usually susceptible to heartwater and can suffer high mortality rates. Cowdriosis is characterized by a sudden and acute fever followed by nervous, respiratory, and gastrointestinal symptoms and by hydrothorax and hydropericardium during postmortem examination. In West Africa, the only vector is Amblyomma variegatum, present in areas where pluviometry is higher than 500 mm. Therefore, animals of a high proportion of the Sahelian region are usually not infested by the tick and not infected by the bacterium. They are thus susceptible when introduced in southern parts of the Sahel or in the subhumid neighboring areas of the West African countries, for example during transhumance. Tetracyclines are effective drugs to treat heartwater when administered before occurrence of the nervous symptoms. Various vaccines have been tested, and are still developed, but, up to now, none of them showed enough effectiveness against all the field strains of E. ruminantium to allow its marketing. Prevention is therefore mainly achieved by drastic vector control or, on the contrary, acquisition of enzootic stability following tick infestation combined with tetracycline treatment as soon as hyperthermia occurs